CONCORD, N.H. — Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, a moderate running for an open U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire, is losing his decisive advantage over progressive opponent Karishma Manzur in the final days before the party’s primary.
A new poll released this week by the University of New Hampshire shows the commanding lead Pappas, a four-term House member, held over Manzur, a democratic socialist, has narrowed to fewer than 15 points.
Of voters surveyed, 47% backed Pappas versus 34% for Manzur. While a gap still exists between the two Democrats, it is a noticeable change from this spring, when an April poll put Pappas at 61% compared with 18% for Manzur.
Manzur said the recent numbers reflect a “surge” in grassroots support across New Hampshire. The Pappas campaign did not immediately reply to a request for comment from Spectrum News.
Throughout her campaign, the progressive medical scientist has portrayed Pappas as corporate-backed and reliant on the support of national Democrats.
“It's really sad that a four-term Congress member needs so many of his aunties and uncles to help him,” Manzur said. “He cannot run on his record. What he has to run on is fear, and he has to run on the establishment’s support.”
Manzur also criticized Pappas for receiving the backing of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a lobbying group despised by progressives opposed to Israel’s war in Gaza. “Exactly what is the difference between Chris Pappas and Donald Trump?” Manzur asked.
Declining to attack Manzur directly when asked about his primary opponent recently, Pappas instead presents himself as a change candidate upsetting the status quo.
“We need to change the power structure in Washington, take on the billionaire class and the corporate special interests, and certainly take on a reckless president who has no regard for the law and the Constitution. At the same time, I think it's important to reflect the generational change that we need to see in Washington, D.C,” Pappas, who is 46 years old, said.
Despite Manzur’s growing influence, the congressman is far outraising his progressive opponent. Manzur pulled together $206,000 between last July and the end of this June. Pappas raised $13 million between last January and the end of this June.
Even so, progressive Democrats have recently notched primary victories over better-funded establishment candidates in places like Florida, where state Rep. Angie Nixon pulled off a stunning upset over a moderate and former national security official Alex Vindman earlier this month. Pappas doesn’t see a similarity to his own fight.
“Every state is completely different,” Pappas said at a recent union endorsement event in Concord.
Though didn’t directly address Manzur’s candidacy when asked, Pappas emphasized the importance of keeping the Senate seat blue.
“I’m finding that there are people who are feeling a lot of different things right now, but who also understand the opportunity we have in New Hampshire to win a really tough Senate race and to change the dynamics in Washington,” he said.
Manzur’s rising poll numbers come at a time when Pappas is preparing for one of the nation’s most competitive and consequential general elections.
The Senate seat in New Hampshire, which is being vacated by incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is one of the Republican Party’s top priorities nationwide. A blue-to-red flip could prove decisive in the party retaining control of the chamber.
The Republican front-runner, John Sununu, is as serious an opponent as Democrats can get. A former senator and congressman, he is also the brother of former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.
The most recent general election poll from the University of New Hampshire puts Sununu with a slight lead over Pappas should each candidate win their party’s nomination (Sununu will need to beat out former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the GOP primary).
Pappas told reporters he wasn’t surprised by the latest numbers. “This is a purple state, and this is going to be a hard-fought contest,” he said.
In 2024, then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried New Hampshire by fewer than three percentage points. The same year, voters elected a Republican governor and legislature.
While the Cook Political Report lists the Senate race as “Lean D,” there is little evidence that it will be any less competitive than the high-profile Senate race next door in Maine, where Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is facing a challenge from progressive Democrat Troy Jackson. The Cook Political Report labels that contest as “Toss-Up.”
Still, Andrew Smith, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, points out that the two neighboring states have different voter demographics. “New Hampshire is much less of a Democratic state than Maine is,” he explained.
Smith believes this dynamic could be a differentiator for Pappas in the primary. “I think that’s Pappas’ greatest strength, that he’s been pushing that he’s the most electable candidate, that he has the most experience, and the most organizational support.”
Democratic voters in New Hampshire will soon decide whether the security that Pappas offers outweighs the insurgent progressive politics of Karishma Manzur.