Jen Mitchell considered 2019 a good first year in business for Brady’s, her restaurant and bar in Boothbay Harbor.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Business plummeted 45% compared to her first year. The roller coaster ride continued in 2021, with business up 20% compared to 2019.

So far this year?

“My sales are pretty much flat compared to last year,” she said. “Definitely slower.”

As the summer tourism season kicks into high gear, it’s difficult to get a clear picture of how things will go. The July Fourth holiday weekend offered perfect weather and with the holiday falling on a Monday, an easy three-day weekend for traveling.

The Maine Turnpike Authority reported that there were 1,023,852 transactions on the turnpike from July 1-4, a number that is flat compared to last year. In general, the July Fourth holiday is not one of the busiest. Based on historical records, those travel days are yet to come — weekends in August and Labor Day, according to turnpike Public Outreach Coordinator Rebecca Grover.

Over Memorial Day Weekend, the turnpike authority recorded 941,654 transactions at toll plazas throughout the day from May 27 through May 30. That was nearly 1,000 fewer transactions than the 942,620 recorded over the same period in 2021, according to the turnpike authority.

Despite those traffic numbers and a flat July Fourth, there are some positive signs. COVID-19 numbers are low in Maine, staffing shortages seem to be easing, and gas prices are down slightly from recent highs.

And while Mitchell is off to an average start, the head of HospitalityMaine said he believes when the beach chairs are folded up for the season, it will be another record year for tourism spending in Maine.

“All systems are pointing toward a very strong summer,” Matt Lewis said.

Lewis said he believes the state will break last year’s record for tourist spending. Visitors spent more than $7.8 billion in the state last year, a record, although the number of tourists was still about a million shy of the 2019 record of 16.6 million, according to the Maine Office of Tourism.

This year, many hotels are booked into fall and though the staffing shortage seems to have eased, some restaurants continue to struggle, said Lewis, whose group represents hotels and restaurants.

“On the restaurant side, some are still struggling, clawing and scratching to stay afloat,” he said.

Maine and other states were able to take advantage of additional foreign worker visas this year, helping to alleviate staffing shortages for seasonal jobs, Lewis said. And, unlike last year, COVID-19 travel restrictions have been lifted, allowing more workers to come to Maine.

Lewis said prior to the July Fourth holiday, some Portland hotels expressed concern about the pace of bookings, but the sunny, warm weather seems to have drawn in tourists in solid numbers.

Farther up the coast, Boothbay Harbor Region Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Lisa Walby said her members are “having a pretty good summer” although not as busy as last summer.

She said the chamber moved some events from the fall to June this year to help get the season started earlier and that Windjammer Days, a weeklong festival leading up to July Fourth, was “very busy.”

The region is also seeing more late-fall and winter travelers, as they continue to promote their seasonal light displays that are anchored by the popular Gardens Aglow at the Coastal Maine Botanical Gardens.

Back at Brady’s, Mitchell said her customer base — a mix of tourists and locals — seems to be cutting back a bit, possibly because of higher-than-normal gas prices and concerns about the cost of heating oil.

Those who rent weekly cottages appear to be stopping at Hannaford to buy groceries, rather than eating out.

“That’s something we really have noticed,” she said.