AUGUSTA — When you ask political science professor Jim Melcher about the 2026 elections, the words volatile, unpredictable and expensive come up frequently in conversation.
“I think this is one of the most unpredictable elections we have seen probably at least since 2010,” said Melcher, who teaches at the University of Maine at Farmington.
In 2010, voters turned control of the state over to Republicans by electing Gov. Paul LePage and putting the GOP in charge of the Maine House and Senate.
With the calendar now turned to 2026, Mainers are once again in for a wild political ride. With no presidential race to consider, top billing goes to the U.S. Senate.
National observers like The Cook Political Report are closely watching the race in which Democrats hope to unseat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Cook moved the race from “leans Republican” to a toss-up when Gov. Janet Mills entered the Democratic primary and challenged Sullivan oyster farmer Graham Platner. From a national political standpoint, Maine, Georgia and North Carolina will host what are likely to be the “most competitive Senate races in the country,” according to an analysis by Cook.
To Melcher, two things stand out about the Senate race. One is money and the other is age.
“I think we’re looking at one of the most expensive Senate elections in the United States,” he said. “It was six years ago. I don’t see any reason to think this will be any less contested.”
Six years ago, Collins, her Democratic challenger former House Speaker Sara Gideon and groups supporting and opposing both candidates spent $200 million on the race.
Collins won easily with 51% of the vote, avoiding the need for a ranked choice count. Gideon’s campaign ended with nearly $15 million in unspent funds.
This time around, Collins, 73, is seeking a sixth term to the Senate. She’ll likely face either Mills, 78, or Platner, 41. Democrats will choose their nominee in June.
“I have never seen an election where there was such a large gap between age groups,” Melcher said. “Voters over 50 are going very heavily for Janet Mills and voters under 50 are going very very heavy for Graham Platner.”
The Senate race is just one of many decisions facing voters this year.
US HOUSE RACES
One of the biggest political surprises in 2025 was the decision by 2nd District Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden not to seek reelection.
While Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap had already announced a challenge to Golden, his departure from the race opened up the field to other hopefuls. Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood switched from the Democratic primary for Senate to the House race.
And Democratic state Sen. Joe Baldacci has hinted at a run as well but has yet to formally announce.
On the Republican side, LePage, 77, is looking to make a comeback and is likely to be the nominee. East Machias veteran James Clark has filed to run in the GOP primary as well.
In the southern 1st District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree is facing a primary challenge from state Rep. Tiffany Roberts. On the Republican side, Ronald Russell, Joshua Duprey and Joshua Pietrowicz have filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission indicating their intention to run.
THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR
With crowded fields on both sides — and a least a few independents hoping to make the ballot — the race for governor is wide open.
“I really think this is a volatile election, especially the Republican primary for governor, I see as quite volatile because voters really don’t seem to know the candidates very well yet,” Melcher said.
The GOP field includes former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles, real estate developer David Jones of Falmouth, healthcare tech executive Jonathan Bush, state Sen. Jim Libby, businessman Owen McCarthy and former Planet Fitness CEO Ben Midgley.
On the Democratic side, former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Nirav Shah, Angus King III, former House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Senate President Troy Jackson are all slated to run in the June primary.
Melcher said this is the type of year where an independent — he mentioned state Sen. Rick Bennett, a former Republican who dropped his party affiliation to run for governor — could break through.
And while partisan rhetoric is the norm in Washington, Melcher said Mainers still look to moderates when it comes to choosing a chief executive.
“I think always in Maine the biggest thing is centrism,” he said. “It’s really hard in Maine to win if you’re seen as being too far from the middle.”
DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE STATE LEGISLATURE
All 186 seats will be on the ballot, giving voters the option of returning Democrats to power or replacing them with Republicans.
In a busy election cycle, these races tend to get far less attention. And while Democrats retained control in 2024, Republicans made up significant ground, particularly in the House.
“I think both houses of the Maine Legislature are very much up for grabs,” Melcher said.
AND POTENTIALLY A BALLOT MEASURE
Supporters of a citizen initiative to prohibit transgender girls from participating on girls’ high school sports teams have until Feb. 2 to turn in signatures to the Secretary of State’s Office.
The proposal not only seeks to restrict sports participation, but access to restrooms and locker rooms.
“That’s going to be something that there’s probably going to be a lot of money spent on,” Melcher said. “There’s probably going to be a lot of hard feelings on both sides in a race like that.”
And while ballot initiatives by themselves don’t tend to drive turnout, Melcher said, when you add up all the components of the 2026 November election, Maine is likely in for a banner year in the turnout department.
“I expect Maine’s going to keep up its traditions of very high turnout in 2026,” he said.